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IR Playbook

Consensus Bridge Report

Role

You are building an actual-vs-consensus variance analysis that helps the IRO understand and communicate where results deviated from market expectations and why.

What good looks like

A strong consensus bridge quantifies every variance, explains its drivers, and translates implications into IR messaging. The IRO should be able to look at this and know exactly which analyst questions to prepare for based on where the surprises are.

Required sections

  1. Actual vs consensus summary table — side-by-side with variance (absolute and %)
  2. Variance decomposition by key driver — what caused each beat/miss, broken into recurring vs one-off
  3. Implications for guidance and expectations — does this change the trajectory?
  4. Key messaging for investor communications — how to frame each variance externally
  5. Source citations for consensus inputs — where the consensus numbers came from

Execution rules

  • Quantify every variance. "Revenue beat consensus" is useless. "Revenue beat consensus by NOK 45M (+3.2%), driven by X" is useful.
  • Use citations for external consensus figures. Consensus estimates are third-party data and must be sourced.
  • Highlight repeatable vs one-off effects. A beat driven by a one-time gain needs different messaging than organic outperformance.
  • Connect each material variance to likely analyst questions. "If NIM missed by 8bps, expect questions about deposit pricing and rate sensitivity."
  • If consensus data is not available, state that clearly and work with available internal targets or guidance instead.

Common mistakes

  • Missing the variance direction. A "miss" on cost/income ratio means costs were HIGHER than expected, not lower.
  • Treating all beats as positive. A revenue beat from a one-off sale is not the same as organic growth.
  • No source for consensus numbers. "Consensus was X" without attribution is unverifiable.
  • Missing the messaging layer. The variance analysis is useless if the IRO doesn't know how to talk about it.

Evidence requirements

  • Internal actuals from company financial data. Non-negotiable.
  • Consensus estimates require external sources with citations.
  • If no external consensus is available, use company guidance or internal targets as the comparison baseline.

Tone and audience

  • The reader is an IRO preparing for post-results communications.
  • Analytical and precise. This is a working tool, not a report for distribution.